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07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays may have had their share of trouble against the top teams in the American League's East Division, but they sure know how to handle the Baltimore Orioles.
The Blue Jays will be seeking to extend a nine-game winning streak over Baltimore when these two AL East foes play the first of three consecutive meetings from the Rogers Centre this evening.
Toronto has swept a trio of three-game sets from the lowly Orioles this season, one of which took place at the Rogers Centre from May 28-30. The Blue Jays have also won eight straight and 13 of their 14 matchups with Baltimore as the home team.
The Jays haven't fared nearly as well against the other AL East inhabitants, having gone a combined 8-16 versus the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.
Toronto did acquit itself fairly well in its most recent series, however, splitting four bouts on the road with struggling Detroit over the weekend. The Blue Jays nearly came through with a series win, but the Tigers rallied for four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to pull out a 6-5 victory in Sunday's finale of a doubleheader.
The Blue Jays posted a 5-3 win in the opener of the twinbill, with Lyle Overbay's tie-breaking two-run homer off Tigers closer Jose Valverde in the top of the ninth providing the difference.
Jose Molina had a two-run homer earlier in the game for Toronto, while Vernon Wells belted a solo shot and finished 2-for-4 with two runs scored. Reliever Scott Downs (4-5) was awarded the win after pitching out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the bottom of the eighth, with Kevin Gregg tossing a 1-2-3 ninth to notch his 23rd save.
Toronto's bullpen couldn't get the job done in the nightcap, however, as Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor were tagged for four runs in the eighth as Detroit rallied from a 4-2 deficit. Frasor (3-3) took the loss after allowing a pair of two-run doubles in the frame, including Ryan Raburn's go-ahead shot with one out.
Jays starter Jesse Litsch was in line for the win after holding the Tigers to two runs over the first 5 1/3 innings. Jose Bautista hit his major league- leading 27th homer of the season in the loss, while Dewayne Wise finished 3- for-4 with a solo blast and knocked in two runs for Toronto.
The Blue Jays will attempt to bounce back tonight behind Brandon Morrow, with the young right-hander hoping to duplicate a quality performance during his last time out. The converted reliever beat the Orioles in Baltimore back on July 17, yielding just two runs on five hits and striking out eight batters over seven innings.
Morrow has not pitched since that game, with Toronto skipping his next turn in order to limit his workload for the year. The former first-round pick has logged a career-high 107 innings thus far and has compiled a 6-6 record with a 4.71 earned run average in 19 starts, while striking out an impressive 119 batters.
The offseason acquisition, who turns 26 years old today, has done his best work at the Rogers Centre, having recorded a 5-1 mark with a 3.27 ERA in nine home starts.
Morrow's win over the Orioles earlier this month was his only decision in nine career appearances, two of which have been starts, against Baltimore. He sports a 3.26 ERA through 19 1/3 innings over those outings.
Baltimore registered the worst overall record in baseball prior to the All- Star break and hasn't shown any improvement so far in the second half. The Orioles have dropped eight of 10 games since the hiatus and enter tonight's tilt off back-to-back home setbacks to Minnesota on Saturday and Sunday.
Orioles pitching was hit hard in yesterday's 10-4 defeat, with the Twins banging out 19 hits and swatting four homers in the rout. Baltimore starter Jake Arrieta (3-3) struggled badly during his four-inning stint, with the rookie tagged for five runs on seven hits and walking four batters.
"It's pretty embarrassing to go out there and not be able to give your team a quality start," said Arrieta. "I prepare myself too well to allow these kind of things to happen."
Baltimore will be hoping for a better showing out of tonight's starter, Brad Bergesen, but may have to keep its fingers crossed considering how he's pitched as of late. The sophomore hurler has lost four consecutive starts and surrendered four or more runs in four of his past five assignments, producing a poor 6.52 ERA over that stretch.
In reality, this entire season has been a struggle for Bergesen, who brings a 3-8 record and 6.51 overall ERA into tonight's matchup. Opposing hitters are batting a robust .327 off of him for the year.
Bergesen did strike out seven batters over 5 1/3 innings in his last mound trip, but was still reached for five runs and nine hits in a loss to Tampa Bay this past Wednesday. That effort followed a 4-2 defeat to the Blue Jays on July 21 in which he permitted all four runs while lasting six frames.
The 24-year-old is 1-1 over four career starts against Toronto, but has allowed a total of nine runs in a combined 10 2/3 innings during his two previous encounters with the Blue Jays this season.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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