Nuggets top Kings in OT on Afflalo's jumper

Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arron Afflalo poured in 12 points, including the game-winning jumper with 18.4 seconds left in overtime, as the Denver Nuggets stayed hot at home with a 112-109 victory over the Sacramento Kings at the Pepsi Center.

Kenyon Martin ended with 24 points and 12 rebounds for the Nuggets, who have won nine in a row at home. Chauncey Billups finished with 23 points and nine assists, Ty Lawson donated 15 points off the bench and Nene chipped in 14 points and six boards for Denver, which has won two straight and 10 of 11 overall.

The Nuggets played their fifth consecutive game without All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony, who is still nursing an ankle injury.

Spencer Hawes tallied 23 points and seven rebounds for the Kings, who have lost three in a row and 10 of 11 overall. Kevin Martin ended with 22 points, six assists, and five rebounds, while Omri Casspi chipped in 14 points for Sacramento, which has lost 10 consecutive road games.

The Nuggets ripped off six straight points early in overtime and went ahead 107-102 on a pair of Afflalo free throws with 3:11 remaining.

The Kings then responded with seven consecutive points, as Hawes' trey gave Sacramento a 109-107 edge with about 1 1/2 minutes to go.

The back-and-forth battle continued as the Nuggets scored the final five points of the extra session to claim victory. Nene's layup made it 109-109 and, following a Kevin Martin turnover, Afflalo made a baseline jumper with 18.4 ticks left to make it a two-point tilt.

Kevin Martin missed a jumper at the other end, and Billups made 1-of-2 from the line with 0.7 seconds remaining to seal the win.

The Nuggets started the fourth on a 14-3 run to take the lead. Afflalo's layup had Denver in front 87-81 with seven minutes remaining.

A Hawes jumper and pair of Kevin Martin free throws cut the deficit to 89-87 with less than 5 1/2 minutes to play in regulation.

Billups' layup had Denver ahead 99-95 with 55 seconds to go, but the Kings scored the final four points of the fourth to send the contest into overtime.

Casspi made a short jumper at the other end to cut the gap to two. Nene then turned the ball over at the opposite end of the floor, giving Sacramento a chance to tie or go in front.

Casspi's jumper was off the mark, but Hawes was there for the tip-in to tie the tilt at 99 with 27.9 seconds remaining.

Billups and Hawes each missed shots in the final seconds to send the game into OT.

The score was tied at 26-26 following 12 minutes of play. A pair of Lawson free throws have the Nuggets a 38-37 edge with 8:44 left in the second, but the Kings responded with a 27-10 run to build a large lead. Kevin Martin's trey had Sacramento ahead 64-48, and the score was 64-50 at the half.

Trailing 72-55 with 6 1/2 minutes remaining in the third, Denver closed the period on an 18-6 burst to get within five. Billups made two three-pointers during the flurry, which Lawson capped with a jumper to make it 78-73 heading to the fourth.

Game Notes

The Kings turned the ball over 19 times, leading to 25 Denver points...Sacramento outrebounded the Nuggets, 48-33...The Kings had won the first two games of the season series.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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