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03/15/2010 - Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seven months after suffering back injuries in a practice crash at Sonoma, CA, Will Power made an impressive comeback in the IZOD IndyCar Series by winning the inaugural Sao Paulo Indy 300 in Brazil.
Power turned in a gutsy performance in the series' season-opener and first race held in a South American country. The 29-year-old Aussie avoided a five- car pileup on the opening lap and then endured rainy conditions for a majority of the event before passing Ryan Hunter-Reay for the lead in the closing minutes to claim his second career IndyCar victory.
"It was probably the most mixed up race that I have ever been in, but it created an opportunity for me to come back through the field and end up winning the race," Power said. "I think it was just a really good day for racing. If you were fast you could pass, because there is such a good track layout here. I'm pretty sure it was an exciting race for the fans."
Power undoubtedly had a dramatic day from start to finish on the Sao Paulo street circuit.
For the first time in series history, both qualifying and the race were held on the same day. A bumpy surface and slick concrete along the front straightaway led to unsafe race conditions and forced Indy Racing League officials to postpone Saturday's schedule qualifying until the following day. Track personnel made improvements in time for Sunday morning's "warm-up" practice session.
Power missed the final practice due to a faulty gearbox, but after his Penske team managed to correct the issue in time for qualifying, he managed to earn the fifth starting position.
By the time Power parked into victory lane, his hands were severely blistered from driving on one of the most physically demanding courses.
"I was really proud of my guys for the job they did to get us ready for qualifying," Power said. "They really were great all day. It was a long day with qualifying and the race all in just a few hours, but we were able to come out alright in the end."
Vitor Meira almost enjoyed the same triumphant return as Power did in Brazil. Meira also sustained a season-ending injury from a horrifying crash in last year's Indianapolis 500. With a third-place run, he was the highest finisher among the seven Brazilians who competed in front of their home crowd.
"It couldn't be much better than that," Meira said. "I think Will can relate to it with a back injury and all that. It gets pretty uncertain at some times and having a team behind you making sure that the seat is available, it makes a big difference during the recovery."
Prior to the start of the 2009 season, Power left KV Racing Technology and joined Penske to serve as substitute driver for Helio Castroneves until his federal tax evasion problems were resolved. Power drove Castroneves' car to a sixth-place finish in last year's season-opener in St. Petersburg, FL.
When Castroneves was acquitted and showed up in time for the second race of the season in Long Beach, CA, Power moved into a third Penske entry and ran a limited schedule from there. But Power continued to be one of the hottest drivers in IndyCar with sensational performances at Long Beach, Indianapolis, Toronto and Edmonton, where he recorded his first series win.
This year, Power joins Ryan Briscoe and Castroneves in Penske's stable of full-time drivers. The team has not been a three-car operation since 1994 when Al Unser Jr., Emerson Fittipaldi and Paul Tracy finished 1-2-3, respectively in points.
With Power's full-time status, Penske will be Chip Ganassi Racing's biggest threat in IndyCar this season. Reigning series champion Dario Franchitti and 2008 titleholder Scott Dixon are considered as the top-two contenders for this year's title, but after winning in Brazil, Power moves right up there with both Ganassi drivers in the championship ranks.
<< Ovechkin suspended two games for "reckless" hit on Campbell
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin has
been suspended two games without pay for his hit on Chicago Blackhawks
defenseman Brian Campbell.
The incident, which the NHL called "a reckless hit" in
<< Lions get CB Houston from Falcons
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions acquired cornerback Chris
Houston from the Atlanta Falcons for a pair of draft picks on Monday.
Detroit gave up its sixth-round choice in the 2010 NFL Draft in addition to a
conditional s
<< Lamely rallies for first PGA Tour title
Rio Grande, Puerto Rico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Lamely fired a six-under 66
in the final round Monday to come from behind and win the rain-delayed Puerto
Rico Open.
Lamely, who won for the first time on the PGA Tour, completed the event
<< Beckham's World Cup absence confirmed
Turku, Finland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England midfielder David Beckham underwent
successful surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon on Monday in Finland, and
it was confirmed by Dr. Sakari Orava that he will miss this summer's World Cup
in Sout
Packers re-sign T Tauscher >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers on Monday re-signed
veteran offensive tackle Mark Tauscher to a two-year contract.
The Wisconsin product has spent his entire 10-year career with the Packers,
who selected the 6-f
Djokovic sneaks into fourth round at Indian Wells >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 2 Novak Djokovic barely survived
his third-round match Monday at the $4.5 million BNP Paribas Open, an ATP
World Tour Masters event.
The second-seeded Djokovic outlasted 25th-seeded German Philip
Giants, Jets to both host games opening weekend >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants and New York Jets will
both host games at their new home, Meadowlands Stadium, on the opening weekend
of the 2010 regular season.
The Giants will play Sunday afternoon, September 12,
Seahawks ink TE Baker >>
Kirkland, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Seahawks on Monday added depth at
the tight end position by signing veteran Chris Baker.
Per club policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The 30-year-old Baker spent last season with the P
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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