Rebels and Tigers meet in Baton Rouge

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/17/2007 - Baton Rouge, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked LSU Tigers have the talent in place for another run at the Final Four, and they are clearly favored in tonight's game against a talented yet inconsistent Ole Miss team.

On Saturday, Ole Miss managed to halt a three-game skid with a 74-72 victory over a talented Arkansas squad. That win enabled the Rebels to move to 12-5 overall and 9-1 at home, but they are just 1-2 in league play and 1-4 in true road games.

LSU is a stellar 10-1 at home, helping the squad earn a 12-4 overall record. The Tigers have won five of their last six games overall, and after dropping a 10-point decision to Alabama in the SEC opener, they rebounded for a 65-63 triumph over Auburn on Saturday.

LSU holds a 112-77 series lead over Ole Miss, including five straight wins over the Rebels.

There are four double-digit scorers in the lineup for Ole Miss, and Bam Doyne leads the club with 16.9 ppg. Clarence Sanders checks in with 15.4 ppg, and Dwayne Curtis adds 13.2 ppg and 10.0 rpg. Rounding out the foursome is Todd Abernethy with 10.7 ppg, and he has dished out 84 assists against only 27 turnovers. In the narrow win over Arkansas, Curtis dominated the paint to the tune of 20 points and 12 rebounds. Sanders totaled 13 points, as did Abernethy to go along with his six assists. Doyne netted 11 points for the Rebels, and Kenny Williams provided further balance off the bench with 10 points.

LSU forward Glen Davis entered this season with a great deal of notoriety after leading his Tigers to the Final Four last season, and the standout power forward has been outstanding through the first 16 games of this season. Davis is averaging 19.2 ppg on 51 percent shooting from the floor, and he is pulling down 10.9 ppg as well. Tasmin Mitchell adds 14.3 ppg and 6.8 rpg to the lineup, and Terry Martin is averaging 11.3 ppg through the eight games that he has played. LSU is posting 72.2 ppg overall while limiting opponents to 58.2 ppg on 37.7 percent shooting from the field. The Tigers are outrebounding foes by 8.1 rpg, an obvious key to the team's success. Martin poured in 23 points in the victory over Auburn on Saturday, as he nailed 5-of-9 three-pointers in that tilt. Mitchell added 12 points, while Davis finished with 11 points and 11 boards.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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