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03/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what could be the sign of the times, Lookin At Lucky, last year's Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old, will have just two prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby. If the Bob Baffert-trained colt winds up crossing the wire first at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, he'll become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby winner with only two previous starts in his three-year-old campaign.
Lookin At Lucky's 2010 journey begins this Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park as the three time Grade 1 winner hasn't raced since a three- quarter length win over Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity at Santa Anita last December. The son of Smart Strike sports five wins in six career starts, with the lone defeat coming by only a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a race he began from post 13.
Will he be able to make his return to the track a winning one? If the answer is yes, then he will certainly quiet the critics that say he's just a synthetic specialist that doesn't overpower his rivals with convincing authority. Don't forget, we witnessed a significant number of horses make the transition from Pro-Ride to dirt just one year ago, including I Want Revenge, who rolled in the Gotham Stakes, and Papa Clem, who took care of business in the Arkansas Derby.
Still, both those colts were not making their first start of the year in those races and they weren't also in need of a change in equipment - two strikes against Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. Not only will this be his initial 2010 challenge, but he'll be wearing blinkers for the first time in his career. In addition, the half-brother to Kensei hasn't been tearing up the track in his morning workouts as other Bob Baffert-trained horses usually do.
The jury is still out on just how good Lookin At Lucky really is so it's best to stay away from him on Saturday.
Another Kentucky Derby contender that also begins his three-year-old season in the Rebel is one of Lookin At Lucky's old rivals.
Noble's Promise, who finished within a length of the two-year-old champ in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Cash Call Futurity, has been working much more efficiently of late with a pair of "second fastest of the day" five- furlong works at Gulfstream Park. Moreover, he's already won off a 5 1/2-month layoff in his two-year-old campaign so there's a decent chance he can turn the tables on Lookin At Lucky this Saturday. However, like his nemesis, he'll be racing over conventional dirt for the first time.
One more horse making his 2010 debut in the Rebel is Uh Oh Bango. With two wins and three seconds in five lifetime starts, the underrated gelding, who finished just a neck behind Rule in the Delta Jackpot Stakes last December, is the possible upsetter in the field.
Sired by Top Hit, Uh Oh Bango gets his speed from his dam side but endurance from the sire line. Top Hit's mother is a half-sister to millionaire Vanlandingham (who won this race in 1984) while his granddam is a half-sister to 1980 Belmont Stakes winner Temperence Hill.
Even with the likes of Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise and Uh Oh Bango in the race, the smart money should go towards another horse by the name of Dublin.
The son of Afleet Alex was just as impressive in losing the Southwest Stakes on February 20 as Eskendereya was in winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes the same afternoon. It was Dublin's first start since November 1st and his initial race after undergoing throat surgery over the winter.
He must have forgotten how to break from the gate along the way as the D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt got off a step slow and then stumbled three strides later. Approaching the backstretch, the 7-2 third choice found himself a good 12 lengths behind the speedy Conveyance. Dublin then zipped his middle half-mile in a blistering 46 4/5 seconds to close within six lengths around the final turn before losing by less than a length.
Jockey Corey Nakatani will now become his sixth rider in seven starts, and most likely, the second one besides Jamie Theriot to pilot him into the winner's circle.
Selections: 1) Dublin; 2) Noble's Promise; 3) Uh Oh Bango
COULD IT BE A "SUPER" 2010 DEBUT IN FLORIDA?
Another top two-year-old from last year returns to the track on Saturday as Super Saver tackles six other colts in the Tampa Bay Derby. As is the case with Lookin At Lucky, the odds might not be in his favor to pull out the victory, especially since the bay colt has yet to ever defeat a top-notch horse. The best colt he's ever knocked off is William's Kitten, the third-place finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Still, he's widely considered one of the top three-year-olds due to his smashing five-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. He might not show his top form off the layoff this Saturday but if he runs back to his lone stakes victory in his final tune up for the Derby, he will definitely be one to watch on May 1st.
The horse everyone's been buzzing about down at Tampa Bay the last few weeks has been Odysseus, who wowed the local crowd with a smashing 15-length victory in an optional claiming allowance race on February 17.
Granted he didn't beat much that day as three of the other five horses in the race were eligible to be claimed, but he did improve his Beyer figure from an 85 (in his maiden victory) to 91. He poses a serious threat to the speedy Super Saver due to his ability to stalk the pace. Plus, he has a race over the Tampa Bay Downs track, which could be a quirky surface to newcomers.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes, the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, took place on February 13 and the second (Schoolyard Dreams) and third (Uptowncharlybrown) finishers from that race will take a crack at upsetting the probable top two favorites.
Uptowncharlybrown, who began his career winning his first two starts by a combined 15 lengths, literally walked out of the gate in the Sam F. Davis, spotting the early leaders three full lengths as the field raced by the stands the first time.
The big gangly colt had more trouble keeping up with the field down the backstretch, settling in last place, about six lengths off the pace. He finally kicked it into gear through the stretch missing second by a diminishing length.
A sharper effort is expected on Saturday, particularly after a 35 4/5 three- furlong work from the gate last week and the addition of blinkers. Look for him to be closer to the pace on Saturday, which could give the son of Limehouse an extra boost of confidence heading into the homestretch.
Schoolyard Dreams comes into the race with a pair of bullet workouts over the track. The son of Stephen Got Even should also get a slight jump on both Super Saver and Odysseus as he breaks inside the duo from post four. Still, it will be a tough task holding onto the lead.
Selections: 1) Uptowncharlybrown; 2) Super Saver; 3) Odysseus
CAN CARACORTADO KEEP HIS UNBEATEN STREAK ALIVE?
Caracortado, the California gelding with five consecutive victories, faces a pair of horses he beat in the Robert B. Lewis, along with four newcomers in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.
It's hard to find holes in Caracortado's armor considering he has yet to lose, but he did fall into a perfect trip in the Robert B. Lewis, sitting behind fast early fractions that cooked both American Lion and Tiz Chrome.
Fortunately for his connections, that scenario could easily take place once again with Sidney's Candy taking over Tiz Chrome's role in a possible speed duel with American Lion.
Speaking of Sidney's Candy, he's likely to be the second choice in the wagering after annihilating the field in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. He's by far the fastest horse in the race but this will also be his first try going a distance of ground. If the chestnut colt can ration his speed in this 1 1/16-mile event, he could take the field gate to wire.
The John Sadler-trainee is bred to go long as his sire Candy Ride won the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic and his dam Fair Exchange is the only foal out of Exchange, a multiple Grade 1 winner. Furthermore, Exchange's dam, Wooly Willow, is a half-sister to the 1979 Queen's Plate winner, Steady Growth. Still, it's hard to wire a field around two-turns on Pro-Ride and American Lion won't make things easy for Sidney's Candy on the front end.
Dave in Dixie, the third-place finisher in the Robert B. Lewis has the come- from-behind style to win the San Felipe. However, he might not be good enough to take the top prize.
Interactif, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the wild card in the race. He has done most of his racing on the turf winning a pair of Grade 3 stakes events before running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He opened his three-year-old season by finishing second to Bim Bam in the Hallandale Beach Stakes at 1 1/16- miles.
Pletcher was mildly successful last year when his Take the Points finished second behind The Pamplemousse in that colt's first venture on Pro-Ride in the Sham. Can he do it again with Interactif?
Selections: 1) Caracortado; 2) Dave in Dixie; 3) Sidney's Candy
SATURDAY SPOT PLAYS
Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta both make their 2010 debuts on Saturday in preparation for next month's colossal showdown at Oaklawn Park, but there are a couple of first-time starters on the Fair Grounds and Santa Anita cards that bear watching.
Trackman, who runs in the seventh race at the Louisiana track, is a three-year- old son of Empire Maker out of Stormy Bear, who's a half-sister to champion turf horse Chief Bearhart. He'll be making his debut at about 1 1/16-miles on the grass and is 6-1 on the morning line.
Race three at Santa Anita for maidens at 6 1/2-furlongs sports Danzing Tribal, a four-year-old gelding by Tribal Rule, whose dam, Danzing Crown, is a half- sister to Chocolate Candy. In addition, Danzing Crown's second dam is a half- sister to the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed.
Also at Santa Anita, go with an Elegant-Holy Flapper exacta box in race four.
Down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, take the three horse "Hit It Rich" in race 11.
Finally on Sunday, first-time starter Sistine is entered at both Aqueduct (race two) and Philadelphia Park (race five). She'll obviously scratch out of one of those races but she is an important filly to watch as she's a half-sister to The Green Monkey, the $16 million yearling purchased in 2006.
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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